Looking into some future fights on my day off here, and I see value on Gane for sure. I think there are a lot of moving parts on this one, and the line is off because of them.
I think it's a bizarre combination of recency bias and selective memory to a degree. Here's what I mean:
The recency bias is due to Gane being taken down and controlled by Ngannou. I think some may now have the thought that this is "the path" to beating Gane. I think that's a massive oversimplification. I think the success that Francis had with his grappling was in large part due to the fact that Gane didn't for a second think that Frances would ever attempt to make it a grappling match. I think it took him completely off guard, and that element of surprise factored in heavily. I also think that Ngannou's massive size played a role.
With Jones, I think the selective memory comes in because we're all thinking of all the greatness of his past and the potential he maybe still has. What we aren't thinking about is his dogshit performance vs Reyes or his disinterested snoozers vs Santos and Lionheart. The thing to really focus on is that these were his LAST 3 FIGHTS. Now, I think it's probably fair to say distractions and Jones being bored with the division had something to do with that. Still, when we really look at this we're seeing a guy who:
A) Looked anything but dominant in his last 3 fights
B) Hasn't fought in THREE YEARS
C) Is moving up a weight class
D) Is fighting a guy who is not only naturally bigger, but can still move like a LHW
When we factor in all of this...I'm really not sure how Jones should be a slight favorite. I cap Gane around -175 or so. Would I be absolutely stunned if Jones comes in looking terrific and gets the win? No. He's one of the best (maybe THE best when completely on his game) do ever do it. But there are just soooooo many things that need to line up correctly for us to see that version of Jones. I'd rather ride with the true HW with a terrific skillset as a slight dog.