but look at some of the guys smith has subbed in the past, It' not a one off sub win for Smith. Vitor didn't display the traits of a high level prospect.
if he had earlier finishers , kos or subs, and was putting jon jones esque performances. I think this is where the lesser resume blossom.
Like Tuporia and Volk. The higher finish rates and good perfect performances are the best indicators of a fighter making the jump in competition and will level out to his proper rankings. If I look back at Petrino's performances, some looked like c grade performance.
Just the decision on Anton should have eliminated the potential for a finish on Smith. Roundtree ko was just one vet beating another. Anyways i think passing on petrino was a decent play for me, just wish i saw smith's value.
Agree and disagree with parts of this.
Agree it's not just a one off type sub - he's shown throughout his career that he is crafty and a genuine submission threat, and extremely opportunistic.
I disagree that Petrinos past performances eliminated the chance of a finish for him - ultimately I think people bet Petrino based on him having genuine KO power - he has finished most of his opponents this way and you can see the power he carries when he throws - Smith can take a decent amount of punishment but I think Petrino absolutely had the power to stop him, maybe not sleep him but certainly hurt and get a stoppage.
In my head I had it capped as close-ish to a pickem, maybe Petrino as a slight favourite just based off Smith looking like he's approaching the twilight of his career, slowing down a bit, being less durable and it being in Brazil.
That said, I think the level of competition both have been fighting was in Smiths favour, he's a more technical fighter and the Pedro fight showed me quite a lot I didn't like in Petrino despite his physical attributes. Given the odds I think it was an obvious dog or pass fight and given I thought smith had 3 paths to victory I was happy to go for it.
I'd say one thing I'm fairly good at compared to other aspects of gambling is identifying when someone is done. I've definitely got it wrong a couple of times thinking they weren't when they were, but usually manage to get it right when not to fade them. Had Aldo on this card and quite a few times over the past few years where there's been groupthink leaning that way, Smith, Holloway, Hooker and Barboza a few times and quite a few others.
I'd say one of the key points of that is the competition they're facing but also odds - I think there's points where it's worth fading on the basis you think they're done but many times it happens the person their facing is making a big step up in competition, the veteran hasn't shown that they are well and truly done, have valid paths to victory and can be found as moderate to large dogs.
I think if a fighter is coming towards the end of their career there are times it's worth fading them, usually though those moments tend to be when their opponent themselves are proven, when there has been a demonstratable drop off and usually when the odds are fairly close or the vet is actually a favourite, not when the prospect is a 1.2 favourite over them.