I feel like Woodson is really starting to peak/put it all together. Even though Caceres looked "decent" in that last fight with Giga, it felt like that was more Giga being a shell of himself/gunshy after the beating he received from Kattar.
Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I feel like Woodson makes it look easy and this fight serves as a bit of a "he's finally got it all together" type of fight. Maybe I'll rewatch the Jourdain fight, but I don't remember that earning a Split Decision.
Caceres is also 35 yo FW (vs Woodson 31), so that should also be noted.
I don't see it. A split decision (C-grade performance with Jourdain).
Fighting Buzukya on short notice and going to a decision, even getting hit cleanly and resorting to wrestling. We saw how easily Emmers beat him down as a UFC caliber fighter should have, but Woodson did not.
Both have a common opponent in Erosa where Alex dismantled him more easily, while Woodson got beat down.
Both guys in their 30s, both going to have 30-year-old man syndrome. Plus, Alex is one of those fighters who got better as he aged, was worst in his 20s
Alex also let a washed, near finished Pineda back into the fight late and displayed some of the worst defense I've seen in a fight. He's just a hard guy to get a read on.
He can go toe to toe with guys like Yair, Giga and such, or get sat down by Wang Guan, Rivera and Seung Woo Choi. Imo I think Woodson's boxing and 6'2 frame will let him control the fight, but a play on Caceres by sub wouldn't be unreasonable.
Pineda was a different fight; he forced Alex into a lot of grappling exchanges. I don't see anything washed about Pineda. He's another fighter who got better as he aged, KOed Movlid a few years prior, and took out younger prospect Tucker Lutz. Alex still won most of the exchanges and out-grappled him.
Some of those fights are from like 10 years ago. And Choi is a good Muay Thai fighter with a national title in MT. He beat Zalal better than Woodson did, so why is getting knocked down so terrible? He still went on to dismantle Choi by submission. Is this worse than Sean getting dropped twice by a check hook to Saldana and getting dropped by a stiff jab shortly after? What are Saldana's striking credentials? Which brings me to the next threat. The submission and body triangle are things Alex can use to catch Woodson, so that should also make a favorite ML play not worth the trouble.
Don't like Alex at all, fancies himself as a technician and will probably fight at range getting drilled by Woofson's inspector gadget arms.
As for height, yes, it's something to consider. However, Alex doesn't need to get into Sean's punching range; he has the better kicking game to chop his legs and force Woodson to press forward if he's down on points. Woodson has poor leg conditioning and very thin calves; we saw this in the Erosa and Saldana fights. Woodson is a boxer by trade with some kicks in his game, but overall, he does not fight good as a long-reach fighter. We saw how Saldana caught him with a check hook moving backward. Alex has that same check hook in his arsenal, only he does it in a southpaw stance, and Alex has the same reach size as Saldana, give or take.
Bare in mind I'm not trying to make an argument as to why Alex will win cleanly; it's just highly doubtful Woodson will look anything like a -150 or -180 fighter. This fight will look more like an even odds fight, so why go with the lesser value?