Hello everyone, haven't posted on here in a bit, been busy. Finally, a good UFC is gonna be on, feels like it's been ages. Not stacked, but I would say an 7.5 out of 10. Here are my picks:
1) Hernandez ko round 2
2) Cejudo by very close decision, I think his striking will make the difference and he can negate Merab's pressure
3) Ian Garry by TKO round 3, expect this one to be a back and forth banger, fight of the night winner imo
4) Whittaker by UD 30-27, I think his range and well rounded striking game will pick Costa apart who had a hard time beating a washed up Rockhold his last fight
5) Volk by UD, 50-45- a win here might put him at FW goat status or at least get him closer to it
1) Hernandez has one finish by KO/TKO since his very first fight 10 years ago, and it was against Edmen Shahazyan after he gassed him and worked him over on the ground. 7/11 of his wins are by Sub, only 2/11 by KO/TKO.
The only time Kopylov has been finished it was by submission, against another top-heavy grappler in Duraev he got decisioned. So would seem that if Hernandez does win it's going to be by decision or submission instead of KO/TKO.
I'll take Fluffly by 3rd round submsision, but I honestly prefer Kopylov's style and will be rooting for him.
2) I think it's a close decision either way, but I expect to see a ton of clinching/reversing position against the fence. Honestly the only thing that would make me happy in this fight is if one guy finishes the other - if it's a close grind-fest they are both ruined as contenders, no one is going to want to see either in a title fight if it's 15 minutes of cage-clinching and failed takedown attempts.
3) Seems reasonable to think Garry could just break him down with kicks and lateral movement since Neal doesn't hit the body ever (pure head-hunter), but Garry's short arms might get him in some trouble (less reach than Neal even though significantly taller). He's been stunned by less dynamic fighters before, so he's gotta be on point throughout, but he's got better fight IQ and diversity of tools so I see him getting at least a decision win unless he gets rocked early.
4) I see Whittaker taking a decision as well, think he'll just use a ton of feints and movement to make it a slow-paced low-output fight where he can pick his spots to blitz. If Costa can actually fight like he used to (confident maniac willing to recklessly push into the pocket) he can give himself a chance to trap Whittaker against the cage and just blitz him with strikes. Whittaker doesn't do well with powerful bullies that can take his shots and keep coming, but I just don't think Costa is that guy anymore (5 years ago against Yoel Romero he was....I'd take THAT version of Costa to win). Even though Whittaker has suspect durability you've gotta think he has the skills to fight more technical and hopefully avoid getting stuck on the cage.
5) I definitely don't see Volk getting a 50-45; I expect Topuria to come out of the fight super-hot and looking to land with huge power, probably has some nerves/jitters because of the moment, Volk fighting way more patient and technical might just give away an early round to get reads and avoid the early blitz, get the timing, etc. If Volk tries to brawl early that is where he could get slept, he probably needs to be willing to fight off the back-foot early and then when Topuria slows down come after him with layered pressure (feints, low kicks, body punches, jabs, etc.). The longer the fight goes the more it favors Volk based on experience/fight IQ/durability, but if he gets pieced up early it could shake his confidence and willingness to take chances/make adaptations. Almost impossible to get a clear read, think we see something like GSP/Hendricks where Topuria does really well early and hurts Volk but he recovers and shows the heart of a champion late to make it a close fight and even steal it late.
