I don't think the point is whether or not he can actually beat sandhagen, the point is he's skipping the journey and just going to the destination, when the journey is often where we learn the most about a fighter and often where most fighters trip up. Going from Almakhan to Sandhagen is very much skipping the journey, thus skipping many potential fuck ups. It is just more deserved when fighters go the typical, step by step, hard route to the top. Umar is very, very privileged in this situation.
Again though, I'm fine with this fight and excited to see it, but nobody in their right mind can argue that Umar deserves this fight based off sporting accomplishments, regardless of whether he wins or not.