ONE Championship, betting thread, One FC

Friday

ONE Fight Night 14: Stamp vs. Hee

https://fightodds.io/odds/5026/one-fight-night-14-stamp-vs-hee
https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/martial-arts/mma/one-on-prime-14
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/102490-one-fight-night-14-stamp-vs-hee
https://www.betmma.tips/mma_betting_tips.php

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ham +175 against stamp... wat?

i'd say ham should be favored here.
 
I played Paul Elliot at (+350). He is facing an opponent, Mauro Cerilli, who is nine years older and who has only fought twice in the past four years. Elliot has lost his last two fights and has never beaten a truly legitimate opponent but he is younger, more athletic, with decent kickboxing and heavy hands.

This is mostly a value play, do your own research, but I feel pretty good about its chances of hitting. There is probably value up to +150.

I also think there may be value on Nat Jaroonsak (+300) but haven't played it yet. Jaroonsak is a 24 year old kickboxer facing ONE's 35 year old Strawweight Champion in a "special rules" match that is basically boxing in four ounce gloves. I haven't played it yet because the exact terms of the match are sketchy and there could be fuckery given ones non-transparent scoring but Jaroonsak definitely has better boxing fundamentals than her opponent from the footage I watched. Jaroonsak throws everything mostly straight and has a nice right cross. Her opponent in contrast seems to mostly spams hooks and loops her shots. Jaroonsak is only listed as having a one inch reach advantage but I think it may be a couple of inches in reality.
 
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UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I played Paul Elliot at (+350). He is facing an opponent, Mauro Cerilli, who is nine years older and who has only fought twice in the past four years. Elliot has lost his last two fights and has never beaten a truly legitimate opponent but he is younger, more athletic, with decent kickboxing and heavy hands.

This is mostly a value play, do your own research, but I feel pretty good about its chances of hitting. There is probably value up to +150.

I also think there may be value on Nat Jaroonsak (+300) but haven't played it yet. Jaroonsak is a 24 year old kickboxer facing ONE's 35 year old Strawweight Champion in a "special rules" match that is basically boxing in four ounce gloves. I haven't played it yet because the exact terms of the match are sketchy and there could be fuckery given ones non-transparent scoring but Jaroonsak definitely has better boxing fundamentals than her opponent from the footage I watched. Jaroonsak throws everything mostly straight and has a nice right cross. Her opponent in contrast seems to mostly spams hooks and loops her shots. Jaroonsak is only listed as having a one inch reach advantage but I think it may be a couple of inches in reality.
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Elliott already down to +190.

How does Jessa Khan not have value at evens? She's 21 and just won the IBJJF world championships...
 
EndlessCritic said:
Elliott already down to +190.

How does Jessa Khan not have value at evens? She's 21 and just won the IBJJF world championships...
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I have money on Khan. I think this is a case of ONE having hyped Danielle Kelly to the moon. I read that Khan also has a previous win against her.
 
Played Nat Jaroonsak at (+365).

The line movement away from the much younger, more athletic, and longer kickboxer in favor of the ONE MMA Strawweight champion for a boxing match in four ounce gloves makes absolutely no sense. Unless Jaroonsak has an injury, which I am slightly worried about given that there is money coming in on her opponent at very inflated odds, I don't see why she would be any worse than a pick-em in this spot.
 
EndlessCritic said:
ham +175 against stamp... wat?

i'd say ham should be favored here.
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Whats ur breakdown. I thought Stamp would be the play with a more well rounded standup game, Ham just has a left and pressure although that carries her a long way + shes durable and its a 5 rounder.
 
BigSteve said:
Whats ur breakdown. I thought Stamp would be the play with a more well rounded standup game, Ham just has a left and pressure although that carries her a long way + shes durable and its a 5 rounder.
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wall n stall, better wrestler
 
Lol wanted to play tenpow +180 and Folayang +100, but odds were taken down at 8. Both won (yuck)
 
EndlessCritic said:
thanh le +200... what am i missing here? seems like he should be -150ish

pacio +300 is way off. he looked fantastic against jarred brooks.
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Now +225 and +320, respectively. I don't know these guys. Pacio is the former champ is all I know.
 
B.Goetz said:
Now +225 and +320, respectively. I don't know these guys. Pacio is the former champ is all I know.
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Insanity.

At least I can understand people betting Malachiev based on his undefeated Dagestani aura. But Pacio is unquestionably his biggest step up, and Pacio has shown extremely good takedown defence against Brooks. Brooks only beat him in the championship rounds.

Market continuing to bet Freymanov at these prices is ridiculous. Freymanov nearly got KO'ed in his last fight. Le just lost his belt in a very competitive kickboxing battle with Kai Tang, and Le has the ability to KO anyone.
 
Been thinking about this card some more.

Jon Di Bella is being completely overvalued at -600. He barely beat Peimian. Danial Williams has fought nothing but studs, and actually gave Rodtang a fight. Losing to superlek means nothing. Williams is a clear play at +400.

Tawanchai should beat Nattawut, but is overvalued at -500. Tawanchai barely scraped by Petchmorakot, and lost a close decision to Sittichai. I'd put Nattawut on the level of all of these guys. Sprinkle on Nattawut definitely justified.
 
EndlessCritic said:
Insanity.

At least I can understand people betting Malachiev based on his undefeated Dagestani aura. But Pacio is unquestionably his biggest step up, and Pacio has shown extremely good takedown defence against Brooks. Brooks only beat him in the championship rounds.

Market continuing to bet Freymanov at these prices is ridiculous. Freymanov nearly got KO'ed in his last fight. Le just lost his belt in a very competitive kickboxing battle with Kai Tang, and Le has the ability to KO anyone.
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I'm on Pacio, 4.5 is too much and I've seen Malachiev have sticky moments with lesser fighters than him

Edit - also on Le.
 
Than Le train hype is real. I have put together a 5 leg parlay from the fight card this week. One fight from oktagon, ONE FC, Bellator each and two ufc. Thank Le is my ONE goto. I am surprised to see this line in fact
 
lipeng/nastyukhin line movement has been wild. very happy with nasty at +odds

also on hu yong at even. hes just a proven animal.
 
EndlessCritic said:
lipeng/nastyukhin line movement has been wild. very happy with nasty at +odds

also on hu yong at even. hes just a proven animal.
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Been pondering Nasty around +120 past few days. Gonna take this +155 right now
 
Tailed Le
Pacio wont let me bet due to our dumb live bet laws. 365 have closed the market. Odds out to 4.90 here for that
 
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