I think it's going to run the other way and long have. I don't think any undecided is really going to settle into their permanent position until much closer to the election. Right now, it's still more theory than reality. Moreover, Trump is entertaining and appealing. But his problem is that the closer you get to an election, the more people have to actually decide if the entertainment that they enjoy is something they really want in leadership.
That's not to say he can't win, I think he certainly can. It's just that Trump is like a hot, crazy girl. When you're talking about who you want to date, everyone initially says her because they like the appeal of it. But if someone said you have to marry that person, people suddenly start evaluating if certain things are still attractive if they're going to be stuck with them for the long term.
He has the early advantage because Biden is the incumbent and the incumbent's usually have the heavier burden because they're running against their own record. People always think the current administration could be done better. But this specific situation is unique because Trump has a prior administration as well. So people will eventually start weighing it more heavily the closer they get to having to make a permanent decision.